Wayne Jones

Project Risk Assessment: Fuzzy Logic Approach to Project Risk Assessment Wayne Jones

In this better, faster, and cheaper era, project managers face many challenges in their attempts to perform effective project management. Too many projects suffer because the cost, schedule and performance goals are unachievable. Unrealistic cost, schedule, and performance estimates and a failure to quantify and communicate the uncertainty of these estimates to managers and stakeholders often results in project failure. A systematic risk identification approach using expert judgment coupled with a risk quantification method has utility in project planning and control. Cost, schedule, and performance are regarded as the "magical" combination that is continuously reviewed by project managers. These three factors form the basis for project control. Therefore, to achieve project success, each of these factors must be understood and properly estimated. A risk assessment model was develop using fuzzy membership sets. The model identified and quantified project risks associated with all three of the project parameters considering risk likelihood and the resulting potential consequences on project estimates.