Robert L Bivins

Alternate Futures for 2025: Security Planning to Avoid Surprise Robert L Bivins

Publisher Marketing: The importance of long-range planning has never been greater due to thedwindling resources dedicated to defense, debates over roles and missions, and the changing security environment. In response to this need, the Air Force embarked on a wide-ranging effort to improve long-range planning. The Air University-hosted project, Air Force 2025 (or simply 2025 to capture the joint nature of air and space power), looks 30 years into the future and identifies the systems, concepts of operation, and technologies required to ensure the US possesses the dominant air and space forces in the future. In order to envision the world of 2025, the study had to make predictions. Futurists use several methods to "forecast" the future. The approach used for the 2025 study creates alternate futures by examining trends, studying the work of respected futurists, considering surprises and "wild cards," and conducting analyses to identify the factors, or "drivers," that will be major contributors to change. To be effective for planning, these drivers must encapsulate the majorforces likely to shape the world of 2025 and be relevant to theorganization. After extensive analysis, the Alternate Futures' teamidentified American World View, Delta TeK, and World Power Grid as the most important drivers affecting the future and relevant to air and space power. American World View is the US perspective of the world and describes American willingness and capability to interact with the rest of the world. Delta TeK is the differential in the rate of growth and proliferation of technology. World Power Grid describes the generation, transmission, distribution, and control of economic, political, and military power throughout the world.