Richard A Proctor

Chance and Luck Richard A Proctor

The false ideas prevalent among all classes of the community, cultured as well asuncultured, respecting chance and luck, illustrate the truth that common consent (inmatters outside the influence of authority) argues almost of necessity error. This, by the way, might be proved by the method of probabilities. For if, in any questionof difficulty, the chance that an average mind will miss the correct opinion is butone-half-and this is much underrating the chance of error-the probability that thelarger proportion of a community numbering many millions will judge rightly on anysuch question is but as one in many millions of millions of millions. (Those who aretoo ready to appeal to the argument from common consent, and on the strength ofit sometimes to denounce or even afflict their fellow men, should take this fact-forit is fact, not opinion-very thoughtfully to heart.