E M Igumnova

Adaptive Balance Models For Environmental-Economic Systems E M Igumnova

Adaptive Balance Models for Environmental-Economic Systems. The monograph presents a new method of Adaptive Balance of Causes (ABC-method), based on second-order negative feedback links between model's variables and their velocities of change. The method is applied to the problem of terrestrial and marine resources consumption with the purpose to assess profitability of their use in coastal zone areas (CZAs). Drawing on principal steps of systems thinking and modeling, conceptual models of CZAs industrial, biological, recreational and environmental resources were developed and studied in view of simultaneous dynamics of environmental management and economic development. The models containing large numbers of control parameters were formalized by the ABC-method, which allowed to develop prediction scenarios of ecological and economic processes in the CZAs. The ABC AGENT informational technology was applied with the purpose of using management agents in model equations to perform control of factors defining balance between economic profitability and environmental protection activities in CZAs. The principal advantage of this management technology and its capacity to perform simulation experiments were proven by a variety of prediction scenarios; the goals of CZAs sustainable development were satisfied.