Naval Postgraduate School

South Asian Stability Workshop Naval Postgraduate School

The South Asian Stability Workshop was a crisis simulation exercise held in Colombo, Sri Lanka on 19-22 March 2013. Participants were comprised of Indian, Pakistan, and U. S. former military officers, civilians, and academics. The simulation involved dividing the Indian and Pakistani participants into teams based on country of origin and playing three moves within the context of a hypothetical crisis scenario, set in the year 2018. The simulation was not a tactical-level war-game, but rather an operational/strategic-level exercise. The simulation exercise was designed to reinforce our theoretical understanding of India-Pakistan strategic stability with practical, conceptual clarity. Although Track II dialogues and academic conferences have been useful for developing a robust theoretical understanding of strategic stability, the South Asian Stability Workshop provided a laboratory in which these theoretical hypotheses could be explored and stress-tested. The purpose of the event was to examine crisis decision-making processes and escalation dynamics in South Asia. Given the complex interplay between subconventional, conventional, and nuclear forces on the subcontinent, coupled with military doctrinal evolution, technological maturation, and the lack of a viable strategic restraint regime, the potential for escalation is significant and deserving of analysis. By convening Indian and Pakistani participants to compose the respective country teams, our intention was to emulate real-world military decision-making dynamics and escalatory pressures as closely as possible. By setting the geopolitical scenario in 2018, our intention was to emulate current strategic dynamics in a relatively proximate timeframe, while simultaneously distancing the participants from present-day political sensitivities that might otherwise constrain their behavior during the simulation. The year 2018 is also a symbolic one, marking the 20th anniversary of the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests. In summary, our objective was not to shape Indian and Pakistani policy or encourage war-fighting, but to gain a better understanding of escalatory dynamics under a nuclear overhang. All participants during the workshop interacted in a friendly, frank, and professional manner. We expect the lessons learned from this event will help stakeholders bridge strategic communication gaps, nurture areas of collaboration for durable peace and security, and foster confidence - building between the United States, India, and Pakistan.