Donald Granberg

The Monty Hall Dilemma: a Cognitive Illusion Par Excellence Donald Granberg 第1 版

A cognitive illusion occurs when the obvious answer to a thought question turns out to be incorrect. Psychological reality conflicts with objective reality. The Monty Hall Dilemma is a cognitive illusion par excellence originating in the ?Let?s Make a Deal? television game show in which a contestant selects one of three doors hoping that it hides the grand prize (like a new car!). After an initial guess has been made, host Monty Hall reveals a consolation prize (like a goat!) behind one of the other doors. The contestant?s dilemma is whether to stay with the first choice or switch to the remaining unchosen door. Popular PARADE magazine columnist, Marilyn vos Savant, writing about the Monty Hall dilemma, received thousands of letters from readers most of whom contested her surprising solution to this dilemma. Knowing about cognitive illusions in general (several are presented here) and the Monty Hall Dilemma in particular should alert readers to the possibility that ordinary reasoning and common sense don?t always apply even though people have a tendency to stick with their initial hunches.