Diana Vinogradova

Planning and improvement of demand forecasting process in an example of company X Diana Vinogradova

Forecasting and planning the demand and continuous improvement of it, is one the basic starting points of the successful enterprise. The aim of the study was to conduct a fully automated forecasting model for the international company X. There were two main research questions for the current thesis: 1) What could be the optimal forecasting model used for different distribution channels? and 2) Identification of all important factors that may contribute to Sales forecasts. The forecasting method should consider not only the historical data of the business, but also taking into account different factors that have an impact on the sales such as promotional activities and market category growth. The forecasting model was tested out on brand Y and three markets data, it showed a great performance, reporting +3% to the actual sales result for 2019. Through increasing the accuracy of the forecast, companies are able to improve the financial performance of the company due to the minimization of costs and unneeded promotional activities. Therefore, company increases the attractiveness as there will be more free cash available. Another important factor is linking the forecasted values with the market share reflection. Using that approach enables users to see, where to expect the growth of category and whether the business is growing faster or lower compared to the whole group. As a result, there will be clear and full overview of the company's performance and according to it management team can propose plans for the upcoming periods.